نمذجة أثر تغيُّر سعر الصرف على أسعار الأسمنت في السودان (2000- 2016)

Feasibility studies, planning, pricing and contract management in the construction industry depend mainly on stability of economic process where most infrastructure projects require relatively long periods time to implement them. In a highly inflationary economy foreign exchange rates constantly change compared local currency for that may extend years. such an economy, prices materials vary according market variables. The methods items bids are not feasible profit loss accounts competition purposes, which leads significant complications contracts associated with these generates new case continuous unprecedented has been resolved even global FIDIC. researcher monitored collected inflation values rate Sudanese pound against US dollar as main large number years cement same then statistically studied through statistical analysis programs. Information over price versus try devise function carried out order describe express it mathematical formula facilitates reading, analyzing forecasting. It was found is related logarithmic both rate. independent explanatory variables (exchange rate) were be responsible at least 80% changes dependent (cement prices). remaining 20% impact other (random) included model, this indication quality documentation model. That model influential variable non-included models have passed derived standard criterion acceptable can therefore relied upon test any hypotheses developed.